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Market Analysis

Overview

The Market Analysis evaluates how your manuscript fits within today's publishing landscape. It examines genre trends, comparable titles, and audience expectations to gauge your book's commercial potential.

Purpose of the Market Analysis

This report helps you understand where your novel sits relative to current, high‑performing books in your genre and subgenre. It focuses on market fit while you’re still drafting or revising—not on post‑publication marketing tactics. The goal is to highlight realistic opportunities, name oversaturated elements to avoid amplifying, and provide concrete actions that improve your manuscript’s commercial readiness.

What the report includes

Together, the metrics and narrative give you a frank picture of commercial potential and a focused plan for revision—what to emphasize, what to trim, and how to position your manuscript inside today’s market.

Metrics (at‑a‑glance)

Each report starts with clear, high/medium/low indicators across key market dimensions, including:

  • Trend fit within your genre/subgenre
  • Differentiation in a crowded space
  • Oversaturation risk (negative metric)
  • Content sensitivity/controversy risk (negative metric)
  • Core hook strength and opening‑hook visibility
  • Length/scope risk and pacing to market
  • Audience clarity and comparable‑title alignment
  • Book‑club and discussion potential
  • Screen adaptation potential and international appeal
  • Prose accessibility for a wider market
  • Title/positioning clarity

Narrative report

Your narrative report translates data into plain‑language guidance you can act on during revision:

  • Market Position Reality Check — an honest, big‑picture read on where the book stands today
  • Trend Analysis & Opportunities — how your work aligns with 2–3 relevant trends, what’s oversaturated, and what to emphasize
  • Competitive Landscape — realistic comps, where leaders succeed, and where gaps exist
  • Target Audience & Market Size — primary and secondary segments grounded in engagement signals
  • Commercial Viability Assessment — strengths that matter to readers, barriers to adoption, and overall positioning
  • Author Action Plan — immediate positioning moves and a market‑entry strategy you can implement in revision
  • Improvement Priorities — a concise, prioritized list when medium/low metrics appear
  • Bottom Line Market Assessment — a realistic, encouraging summary

What We Evaluate

While our methods are proprietary, your report reflects attention to:

  • How closely the manuscript aligns with rising trends—and where it diverges in useful ways
  • Whether the hook is clear, repeatable, and visible early enough for your intended audience
  • Differentiation vs. common, oversaturated tropes in your subgenre
  • Realistic audience size and expectations for tone, pacing, and scope
  • Comparable‑title alignment and where you can credibly compete
  • Sensitivity considerations and ethical framing where topics are charged
  • Craft choices that affect discoverability (length/scope, pacing, prose accessibility)
  • Signals that support hand‑selling, book‑club adoption, and adaptation interest

About the Market Trends Data

Each trend entry consolidates key context you can act on during revision:

  • Name, trajectory (e.g., rising/stable), saturation level, and timeframe (first visible year, peak window)
  • Summary of how the trend operates within your genre/subgenre
  • Character archetypes, hooks, situations, aesthetics/looks, and settings/places commonly associated with the trend
  • Audience segment most responsive to the trend
  • Quantitative signals (as proxies), which can include:
    • Goodreads: median ratings count, average rating, 12‑month growth, sample size
    • Bestseller presence: weeks on lists (proxied where needed)
    • Awards/club/adaptation signals (wins, longlists, club selections, announced TV/film)
    • Format/retailer indicators (e.g., audiobook growth, editorial lists, runtimes)
    • Normalized magnitude/saturation scores (0–1)
  • Key signals and representative examples (titles, years, brief notes)
  • Action notes (how to lean into the trend) and risk notes (pitfalls/oversaturation concerns)
  • Cited sources with links and data‑quality notes

Forecast model

The data also includes a forward‑looking forecast (typically next 12 months) with:

  • Hypotheses (with confidence levels and rationale)
  • Suggested moves for authors to consider
  • Early indicators to watch (with thresholds and windows)
  • Downside risks and macro risks that could affect appetite

We use these to inform timing guidance and to frame which elements to emphasize vs. de‑emphasize.

How the trends data shapes your report

  • We select 2–3 trends that best align to your manuscript and audience.
  • Saturation levels and risk notes help flag overplayed tropes, while action notes point to under‑served opportunities.
  • Hooks/archetypes/settings inform positioning language and where your book naturally differentiates.
  • Quantitative signals calibrate expectations (e.g., list presence, reader engagement, award/club momentum) without forecasting sales.
  • Forecast hypotheses guide timing advice and revision priorities that keep the book contemporary for the coming cycle.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is this a marketing plan?

No. This is an author‑facing editorial report focused on manuscript decisions. It suggests what to emphasize or refine so the finished novel is easier to position in the current market.

Will you predict sales or revenue?

No. We assess commercial potential qualitatively and comparatively. We avoid sales forecasting and keep recommendations grounded in trend fit, audience expectations, and competitive reality.

Where does the “market trends analysis” come from?

We synthesize recent performance signals across high‑selling titles from the last 3–5 years. Signals include:

  • Bestseller list presence (e.g., NYT weeks, combined proxies)
  • Goodreads engagement proxies (median ratings count, average rating, 12‑month growth)
  • Award signals (wins/longlists) and adaptation momentum (announced/released projects)
  • Retailer/editorial presence (e.g., Audible Best/Editors’ Picks) and audio market growth indicators
  • Saturation and magnitude scores (normalized 0–1) derived from multiple public sources
  • Representative examples, audience segments, and clearly stated data‑quality notes

Your report refers to these collectively as the market trends analysis.

What if my genre is niche or hybrid?

We anchor in subgenre cohorts and identify adjacent trends that can widen appeal. Recommendations focus on differentiation and the clearest path to readers who value your book’s strengths.

Do audio/podcast trends change the advice?

Only secondarily. The analysis is novel‑first; audio is noted when it meaningfully affects positioning, not as the primary frame.